Powerball jackpot at $1.7bn
The Powerball jackpot is around $1.7 billion. Given that a ticket costs $2 and the chance to win the jackpot is about 1:300 million it seems almost rational to buy a ticket. I mean, I'd buy a ticket or two if I would still live in the US.
Or, as a friend suggested, take $600 million and buy 300 million tickets and win for sure.
Would that work?
Yes, it would work in the sense that you would have a guaranteed jackpot win. But does it pay off?
Let's assume you don't have $600 million in cash lying around and instead get a loan (ha, sure!) for that amount (if you're reading this and you *do* have $600 million in cash lying around, the analysis would be quite different, interestingly, but in that case send me a DM and I'll sell you the analysis).
Now, there are a few considerations:
1. You will be paying taxes on the prize money. At least 37% in federal taxes, and then between 0% and 11% in state taxes.
2. The $1.7 billion is the sum that you get over 30 annual payments, where each payment is 5% more than the previous one. That starts at about $13-$16 million after taxes, depending on your state. That will likely not be enough to cover the interest on the $600 million, but that depends on your loan terms.
3. You can opt for a one-time payment instead of the 30 years of annual payments. But in that case it's "only" $770 million you get. Or between $400-$500 million after taxes.
4. The biggest risk is that someone else might win too. In that case you split evenly with every other winner. That means a single other winner reduces your payout by 50%. If there are more, you get even less.
5. On the other side, you will actually get more than just the Jackpot. Because you bought 300 million tickets, several millions of those tickets will win something. Altogether, that's another $90 million roughly. Again, before taxes.
Seems close cut so far, but...
6. Here comes the kicker -- you can actually deduct the cost of the lottery tickets against the taxes on lottery winnings, if you itemize them. So better keep the receipts!
That would reduce the taxes considerably, if you take the one-time payment (with the annual payments, it probably won't last for 30 years). So the total calculation for the one-time payment would be:
Total win $770 million + $90 million = $860 million. $600 million is tax free, on the other $260 million you'll have 37-48% tax, you'll still end up with more than $130 million profit, with which you'll be able to pay off the interest on the short-term loan easily.
But because of consideration nr. 4, and given that there are many other players given that huge jackpot, you'll likely have to split. And if that happens, your losses will be catastrophic:
Assuming a single other winner, your total prize money drops to $385 million + $90 million (that part is fixed) = $475 million. Fortunately it's all tax free (because, well, you didn't actually make any money), unfortunately you're now at least $125 million worse off, plus interest. If more people win, it gets worse.
My recommendation: if you're into this kind of things, buy one ticket (the first ticket increases your chances by a lot, the second ticket merely doubles it), dream about what you'd do with the money for a day or two, but have no expectations to win. Chances are you won't (there's a reason it's called a tax on stupidity).
And definitely don't do the "buy every single ticket" scheme with loaned money. That will end badly.
P.S. (a few days later): the Powerball was won by two tickets, and thus had to be split.
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