Simia - Recent changes [en]

Croatia's goal was stolen! Portugal is scripted to advance

Denny — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 06:32:03 GMT

Croatia's goal was stolen! Portugal is scripted to advance

Denny — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 06:28:04 GMT

Created page with "{{pubdate|{{subst:CURRENTDAY}}|{{subst:CURRENTMONTHNAME}}|{{subst:CURRENTYEAR}}}} The feed for my Facebook reels is now full of videos analyzing the Croatian goal that wasn't..."

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{{pubdate|4|July|2026}}

The feed for my Facebook reels is now full of videos analyzing the Croatian goal that wasn't counted, and with conspiracy theories about the whole World Cup being scripted for a Ronaldo-Messi finale.

And this is how easily social media radicalizes you. I have no idea how widespread either of these ideas are. Is there really a dominating public debate happening about this? I don't think so. But for me, looking at my Facebook reels, it would appear like this is the most important thing happening right now. And look at all these people making smart videos agreeing with me! And not a single one disagreeing!

I'm confirmed in my bias. Look, everyone thinks that the VAR was wrong. Everyone thinks Croatia was robbed of a chance to continue to compete. And yet nothing is happening.

I have two ways I can react: first, I could try to do something. Protest. Demand reform. Make petitions. Get involved with the relevant governing bodies and make changes. Obviously I don't care nearly enough to put in that energy and change the priorities in my life for that. And as I do that, I would actually feel the resistance in real life, notice how little support that idea actually may have. A reality check

The second way: I engage with these videos, write supporting comments, strengthen this belief and get sucked in by tapping on a screen, get more cynical about the world because although everyone believes the same as I do, nothing is changing, so it must be “them” who keep the real control and decide differently. My trust in institutions further erodes, seeing the obvious discrepancy between what everybody believes and between what actually happens.

The bubble wrap around me gets tighter, splintering society further. Shared spaces starve, because folks prefer the comforts of confirmation over confronting conflict. I mean, why even try to reach across the aisle if my tribe is so big? If we are the obvious majority?

And the designers behind the social media feed algorithms either know all of this and still pursue it, intentionally, because of the monetary advantages it brings, or they have given up on caring and handed the decisions over to an algorithm whose goal is engagement. The algorithm is unaware of any cost not modeled in its objective function. Like a paperclip maximizer, it is set up to maximize engagement or whatever the metric is, even if it breaks society. That would be either an externalized cost, or not relevant for this quarter’s metrics, or just invisible.

This isn’t about the Croatia game. This is about how we process crises and deal with controversies, from COVID and the January 6 insurrection to elections and institutional trust. It is about vaccines and raw milk, the support for Ukraine, the rise of authoritarianism, our response to climate change. This is about how our society is breaking.

Why do we allow social media algorithms to tear our social fabric apart? Is this just another complaint to feed my own bubble, getting confirmation from others, but not do anything about? What about you, will you just agree and move on? Or are we willing to put in the work?

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July 2026

Denny — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 06:14:41 GMT

Created page with "{{Month|July|2026}}"

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Flower power

Denny — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 11:01:00 GMT

Created page with "{{pubdate|{{subst:CURRENTDAY}}|{{subst:CURRENTMONTHNAME}}|{{subst:CURRENTYEAR}}}} One of the most shocking movie scenes that burnt into my mind was in the opening credits of..."

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{{pubdate|14|June|2026}}

One of the most shocking movie scenes that burnt into my mind was in the opening credits of the 2009 Watchmen movie, directed by Zack Snyder. 50,000 protesters took part in the March on the Pentagon in 1967. A row of military police was pointing their rifles at the protesters. A flower power protester puts a flower into the barrel of one of the rifles. In the movie, Bob Dylan's The Times They are A-Changing is playing over the scene, recreating an iconic photograph from 1967. (link in comment)

But in the alternative reality of the movie, the police fires at the protesters.

I remember seeing that scene in the movie theater, and I found that image absolutely distressing, thinking about the terrible alternate reality that would have been. How many people would have died, how different the United States would be today... and being glad that reality took a different turn.

... but did it?

Today I learned about the 1967 Detroit riots. More than 7000 people arrested, 43 people killed, of which 30 were killed by the authorities and another six by store owners or security guards. It was in the same year. And the authorities were shooting and killing the people, mostly black people. But that seems a lot like the terrible "alternative reality" Snyder's movie was drawing. But it was not an alternate reality. It was just not the story of mostly white hippies on the coasts, but of mostly black people in Detroit.

I am ashamed it took me until today to have learned about these events. But one thing I can do is reading more about the events and maybe reach others who might not have known.

* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flower_Power_(photograph) Flower Power photograph - Wikipedia]
* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_March_on_the_Pentagon 1967 March on the Pentagon - Wikipedia]
* [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3t5zxrBOo0 Intro scene from Watchmen]
* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_Detroit_riot 1967 Detroit riot]

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Mega-IPOs

Denny — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:11:54 GMT

Mega-IPOs

Denny — Mon, 08 Jun 2026 13:32:30 GMT

Created page with "{{pubdate|{{subst:CURRENTDAY}}|{{subst:CURRENTMONTHNAME}}|{{subst:CURRENTYEAR}}}} There are more than 15 trillion (!) dollar invested in index funds. Starting in a few days a..."

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{{pubdate|8|June|2026}}

There are more than 15 trillion (!) dollar invested in index funds. Starting in a few days and going on until the fall of next year, more than half a trillion dollar of that money will be pulled out from the existing company shares in numerous indexes and used to buy SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic shares from their existing share owners. (Most of it will start happening in about a year, when the S&P500 lets SpaceX join. Unlike NASDAQ, S&P didn't change their rules to fast-track these mega IPOs. But they will join NASDAQ before their first quarterly report as a public company).

With the IPOs of SpaceX (this Friday), OpenAI, and Anthropic, and them joining NASDAQ and FTSE's global index within a few days after their IPOs (and S&P and Dow Jones a year later), everyone who has invested in index funds, be it directly through ETFs or indirectly through their 401k and other retirement plans, will automatically sell about 5% of the shares they are currently holding, and buy shares from one of these three companies. All three IPOs will be, by far!, the largest IPOs in history.

So, if you have $100 invested in a NASDAQ-indexed ETF, you will be selling $5 of the stocks you currently own (while everyone else is doing the same) and by $5 worth of Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI stocks (while everyone else is doing the same), automatically and predictably.

It will be a tough time for the rest of the stock market this year, as there will be a lot of people's money flowing to OpenAI, SpaceX and Antrhopic without anyone ever intentionally buying it, with the market sending 5% of its liquidity to these three new mega IPOs. It will be immensely beneficial for everyone selling these shares.

Whether it will be beneficial for the general public, i.e. for the people holding these index funds, is something we are going to see in the next few years. I wouldn't wager a prediction on that. Maybe there's an AI bubble that might burst, maybe making more of their numbers public will make some people think they are overvalued, maybe all three companies will realise incredible value and will lift the stock indexes well beyond the 5% of the market they will initially cost. We are going to see. If I could make predicitons about how these things will develop, I'd be much richer.

But it seems that in the next 12-18 months, 100s of billions of dollars are slated to go from retirement plans and other stock investors to Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and others. Happy to discuss if I misunderstand.

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The Amazing Digital Circus

Denny — Sat, 06 Jun 2026 20:48:08 GMT

The Amazing Digital Circus

Denny — Sat, 06 Jun 2026 20:43:23 GMT

Created page with "{{pubdate|{{subst:CURRENTDAY}}|{{subst:CURRENTMONTHNAME}}|{{subst:CURRENTYEAR}}}} (spoiler free) The Amazing Digital Circus is an animation show of which, until about a mont..."

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{{pubdate|6|June|2026}}

(spoiler free)

The Amazing Digital Circus is an animation show of which, until about a month ago, I haven't even heard about. I learned about it from my daughter. It is the work of an independent creator, and was initially published on YouTube and later also made available on Netflix. The YouTube video of the first episode has more than 400 million views and on Netflix it's been in the top ten for a while.

The premise is that a few humans are captured in a virtual reality, where an AI has the job to entertain them. With time we realize that some of the humans have been there for decades, one has partially lost his mind, and there seems to be no way out. The colorful graphics and seemingly silly character designs hide a much darker story, inspired by "The Matrix", maybe "Lost", and "I have no mouth but I must scream".

The show has nine episodes, each about half an hour long and the final episode double that, so not too long.

I find the animation style somewhat subpar, but the pacing is so much more comfortable and relaxed than many other current shows and movies. The characters are really well done, and feel realistic and multifaceted.

The last episode is currently being shown in cinemas, and it seems do be doing extremely well for an independent show, before it will be available on YouTube in a few days (for free, like the rest of the show). We went to watch it today, and very much enjoyed it.

Given how Lost didn't manage to find a fully satisfying ending, and The Matrix had trouble with storytelling after the first movie, I didn't expect that the Amazing Digital Circus would be able to bring the story to a satisfying end.

I was wrong. The ending was so much better than I expected it. It was fresh and novel (well, there's probably some manga or SF short story with that storyline, but it was novel to me) and more satisfying than I would have deemed possible in such a short episode. Not every question seemed answered, but with this show I expect not to have picked up on every clue and I'll probably find more answers in a few weeks. But the big ones were, and the story came to a close.

Can recommend.

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@@ Line 17: / Line 17: @@
 This isn’t about the Croatia game. This is about how we process crises and deal with controversies, from COVID and the January 6 insurrection to elections and institutional trust. It is about vaccines and raw milk, the support for Ukraine, the rise of authoritarianism, our response to climate change. This is about how our society is breaking.
-Why do we allow social media algorithms to tear our social fabric apart? Is this just another complaint to feed my own bubble, getting confirmation from others, but not do anything about? What about you, will you just agree and move on? Or are we willing to put in the work?
+Why do we allow social media algorithms to tear our social fabric apart? Is this just another complaint to feed my own bubble, getting confirmation from others, but not do anything about? What about you, will you just agree and move on? Or are we willing to put in the work and make a change?
 {{tag|Simia}}
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@@ Line 5: / Line 5: @@
 With the IPOs of SpaceX (this Friday), OpenAI, and Anthropic, and them joining NASDAQ and FTSE's global index within a few days after their IPOs (and S&P and Dow Jones a year later), everyone who has invested in index funds, be it directly through ETFs or indirectly through their 401k and other retirement plans, will automatically sell about 5% of the shares they are currently holding, and buy shares from one of these three companies. All three IPOs will be, by far!, the largest IPOs in history.
-So, if you have $100 invested in a NASDAQ-indexed ETF, you will be selling $5 of the stocks you currently own (while everyone else is doing the same) and by $5 worth of Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI stocks (while everyone else is doing the same), automatically and predictably.
+So, if you have $100 invested in a NASDAQ-indexed ETF, you will be selling $5 of the stocks you currently own (while everyone else is doing the same) and buy $5 worth of Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI stocks (while everyone else is doing the same), automatically and predictably.
 It will be a tough time for the rest of the stock market this year, as there will be a lot of people's money flowing to OpenAI, SpaceX and Antrhopic without anyone ever intentionally buying it, with the market sending 5% of its liquidity to these three new mega IPOs. It will be immensely beneficial for everyone selling these shares.

@@ Line 15: / Line 15: @@
 Given how Lost didn't manage to find a fully satisfying ending, and The Matrix had trouble with storytelling after the first movie, I didn't expect that the Amazing Digital Circus would be able to bring the story to a satisfying end.
-I was wrong. The ending was so much better than I expected it. It was fresh and novel (well, there's probably some manga or SF short story with that storyline, but it was novel to me) and more satisfying than I would have deemed possible in such a short episode. Not every question seemed answered, but with this show I expect not to have picked up on every clue and I'll probably find more answers in a few weeks. But the big ones were, and the story came to a close.
+I was wrong.
 Can recommend.